When farm prices spiked during World War I, teenagers quit school — and never caught up

A new dataset of county enrollment records shows that high agricultural commodity prices during World War I pulled teenagers out of school and into farm work, reducing their final schooling by roughly four months to six months. In counties where child labor was already common, even younger children felt the effect: higher family income from farm prices didn't help them stay in school because the economic pressure to work was too strong.

This reveals a structural constraint on human capital that most economic models ignore: opportunity cost crushes good intentions. Even when families had more money, they pulled kids from school because farm work paid immediately and the return on schooling felt distant. The finding matters because it shows that poverty isn't the only barrier to education — timing and the competing pull of immediate earnings can overwhelm financial gains. Policy designed around 'just give families more money' misses the mechanism that actually traps talent.