The US scientific workforce relied on cheap labor. That era is ending.
What happened
The number of postdoctoral researchers in the US grew fourfold since 1979, but their job prospects got worse. This means the US scientific system relied on a growing supply of cheap labor, and that supply is now shrinking, which could reduce future research.
Why it matters
The US scientific research system has relied on a growing supply of highly educated, low-cost labor for decades. This paper shows that supply is now shrinking, and the economic model that fueled much of US research is breaking. The system that produced so much research might now slow down.
The signal
Watch for changes in the number of new research grants awarded by agencies like the NIH, or a measurable decline in published research output in the coming years.