The dollar is easy to get, but US debt is suddenly hard to hold.
What happened
The ease of using US dollars has increased, but the ease of holding US Treasury debt has decreased. This means it is now harder to get your hands on US government bonds, especially longer-term ones.
Why it matters
For decades, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds were both seen as easy to get and easy to hold. This paper shows that while the dollar remains convenient, Treasury bonds have become inconvenient. The relative supply of US government debt compared to other countries' debt appears to be the main reason. This could change how global investors manage their money.
The signal
Watch whether the cost to borrow US dollars for short periods (measured by covered interest parity deviations) starts to track the cost to borrow US Treasuries, or if they continue to move in opposite directions.