Grid operators still cannot predict sudden solar power changes

New research looked at two years of solar power data from thousands of stations. It turns out that current forecasting models are very bad at predicting sudden surges or drops in solar power. This means grid operators cannot reliably plan for these events, which increases the risk of power instability and outages.

Solar power is growing fast. But this paper shows that the tools grid operators use to manage it are failing at a critical task: predicting sudden surges or drops in power. This means that integrating more solar power will be harder and more expensive than many assumed. Grids will need more backup power or entirely new forecasting systems to stay stable.