To get people to move into extreme danger, pay them now, not later

Researchers measured how people in Ukraine decide to move to cities under attack. It turns out, people will move to very dangerous places if they are paid upfront, but not if the danger is moderate or the payments are in the future.

Governments and aid groups often try to get people to move back to places damaged by war. This paper shows that if the danger is high, only immediate cash payments will work. Future promises or benefits for moderate danger zones do not change behavior.