What happened
It turns out that when college applicants get worse news than they expected, they blame affirmative action policies. This makes them more likely to oppose those policies and donate money to groups fighting them.
Why it matters
This paper identifies a specific, measurable trigger for political action against affirmative action. It is not just a general dislike, but a personal experience of disappointment that fuels it. This means that as college admissions become more competitive, or as expectations are managed poorly, opposition to these policies could grow predictably.