Militaries now have a data-backed list of reasons why their officers betray them

A new study used historical data to identify specific reasons why high-ranking military officers betray their country. It turns out that slow promotions, feeling overlooked compared to peers, and seeing better opportunities with the enemy all make defection more likely.

For decades, militaries have relied on intuition and counter-intelligence to manage officer loyalty. This paper provides concrete, data-driven factors that predict defection, moving beyond guesswork. It means military human resources and intelligence agencies can now identify specific officers at higher risk of betrayal, allowing them to intervene or mitigate the threat before it happens.