US tariffs mostly raised prices for US importers, not foreign exporters
What happened
The US raised average tariffs in 2025, making them the highest in 80 years. It turns out that 90% of the cost was passed directly to US companies buying imports.
Why it matters
Governments often raise tariffs to protect domestic industries or reduce trade deficits. This paper shows that in 2025, US tariffs mostly acted as a tax on domestic businesses and consumers. They did raise federal revenue and shift some trade away from China, but they did not significantly lower prices from foreign exporters or create many manufacturing jobs.
The signal
Watch whether future tariff increases are followed by significant shifts in manufacturing employment or a measurable reduction in the overall trade deficit, rather than just higher import prices.