A new model shows how to tax borrowing to prevent the deepest recessions
What happened
Recessions are worse when they follow asset booms fueled by lots of debt. This paper shows that a specific tax on borrowing could make these recessions less frequent and less severe.
Why it matters
Economists have known that debt-fueled asset bubbles lead to worse economic crashes. This paper provides a concrete way for central banks to intervene, by showing how a small tax on borrowing can stabilize the system. It gives regulators a specific tool to use against the kind of financial excess that leads to the deepest downturns.
The signal
Watch for central banks to start discussing specific 'borrowing-tax rules' as a tool for financial stability, especially in countries with rapidly rising asset prices and credit.