Climate disasters may shrink populations, but only if they hit stable societies

New research shows that climate-related disasters can reduce birth rates, but this effect is strongest in places that are not already experiencing social upheaval. The World Bank found that when populations are already disrupted by conflict or poverty, climate shocks do not significantly change fertility rates.

This finding challenges the assumption that climate change will uniformly depress birth rates globally. It suggests that the impact of climate hazards on population size depends heavily on the existing stability of a society. Places already struggling with conflict or economic hardship may not see further fertility declines due to climate events, meaning their populations might continue to grow despite environmental pressures.