180 years of US data: tariffs always shrink the economy

New research looked at 180 years of US trade policy. It found that raising tariffs always makes the economy shrink. This means higher import taxes lead to fewer imports, fewer exports, and less manufacturing activity.

For decades, governments have debated whether tariffs help or hurt the economy. This paper provides the most comprehensive historical data yet. It shows tariffs consistently lead to economic contraction. This makes it harder for any government to argue that tariffs are a net economic benefit without acknowledging the broader costs.