Russia's war strategy: ethnic identity buys support, others pay in casualties
What happened
A new study shows Russia's war strategy in Ukraine is not about resources or external threats. It is about ethnic identity. Provinces with more ethnic Russians show higher support for President Putin, while regions with fewer ethnic Russians bear more battlefield casualties.
Why it matters
Analysts debated Russia's motives in Ukraine for years. Was it about resources? Geopolitical power? This paper shows the domestic political logic is far more cynical. The regime uses ethnic identity to rally support at home. It sends soldiers from other regions to die.
The signal
Watch for shifts in Russian recruitment patterns or how state media frames casualties from different regions.