Firms change import plans just by hearing about future exchange rates

Researchers found that giving companies a simple forecast about future exchange rates changes their import decisions. This means companies, especially those that don't export, will buy more or less from other countries based on what they expect prices to do later.

Governments and central banks often try to influence trade through interest rates or tariffs. It turns out, simply providing clear information about future currency values can also shift how much companies import, especially smaller ones.