Governments now know which small business loan guarantees actually help, and which just shift risk.
What happened
The World Bank surveyed 108 government loan guarantee programs for small businesses. It turns out specific design choices decide if these programs actually help businesses or just shift financial risk.
Why it matters
Governments have used loan guarantee programs for decades to boost small businesses. Many of these programs just moved bad loans from banks to taxpayers. This paper gives governments a blueprint for building programs that actually work, instead of just creating new liabilities.
The signal
Watch whether governments start updating their loan guarantee scheme designs to match the World Bank's recommendations, especially regarding governance and funding.